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THE FUTURE Predictions  R U Ready?

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In  1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper  worldwide.  Within  just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went  bankrupt.

 

What happened to Kodak  will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most  people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later  you would never take pictures on film  again?

 
Yet  digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had  10,000 pixels, but followed Moore 's law. So as with all exponential  technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it  became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It  will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and  electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome  to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential  Age.

  
Software  will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10  years.


Uber  is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the  biggest taxi company in the world. 

 
Airbnb  is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't  own any properties.

 
Artificial  Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding  the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the  world, 10 years earlier than expected. 

 
In  the US , young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson,  you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)  within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when  done by humans. 

 
So  if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers  in the future, only specialists will remain. 

 
Watson  already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than  human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that  can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will   become more intelligent than humans.

 
Autonomous  cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the  public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be  disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car  with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to  your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the  driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will   never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.  

 
It  will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for  that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million  people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one  accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that  will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will   save a million lives each year.

 
Most  car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car  companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,  while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the  revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.  

 
Many  engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of  Tesla.

 
Insurance  companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the  insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business  model will disappear. 

 
Real  estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,  people will move further away to live in a more beautiful  neighborhood.

 
Electric  cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy  because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will   become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an  exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning  impact. 

 
Last  year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy  companies are 

desperately  trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home  solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care  of that strategy. 

 
With  cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of  salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We  don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking  water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much  clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health:  The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are  companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder"  from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina  scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. 

 
It  then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.  It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will   have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.  Goodbye, medical establishment. 

 
3D  printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from  $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100  times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D  printing shoes. 

 
Some  spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The  space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the  large amount of spare parts they used to have in the  past.

At  the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning  possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect  shoe at home. 

 
In  China , they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office  building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be  3D printed.

 
Business  opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask  yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if  the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?  

 
If  it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea  designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the  21st century.

 
Work:  70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a  lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough  new  jobs in such a small time.

 
Agriculture:  There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in  3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead  of working all day on their fields. 

 
Aeroponics  will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is  now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.  Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.  Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several  startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It  contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative  protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating  insects).

 
There  is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood  youre  in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial  expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's  being displayed when theyre  telling the truth and when theyre  not.

 
Bitcoin  may even become the default reserve currency. Of the  world.

Longevity:  Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.  Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80  years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be  more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a  long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education:  The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia . By  2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone  has the same access to world class education. 

Every  child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school  in First World countries. We have already released our software in  Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this  Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the  English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent  in English within half a year.

 
 
Boom!






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